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AfterWar - War Damage and How Economies Recover
AfterWar - Counting War Damage & Mapping How Economies Heal This report counts the economic damage from a forever loss of 10% of global Oil and Gas supply. That’s about half the current shortfall created by the Gulf shipping paralysis. The cost is that global GDP …
Russia – This is not Roulette
Russia – This is not Roulette. Investment Conclusion; This is not Russian Roulette. Every chamber in the gun is loaded. It is pointing right at the heart of Europe. The new “sheriff in town” is walking to other way down the dusty track away from the European village.…
War Dividend
War Dividend A tectonic plateshift has started. There will be a War Dividend to recoup the Peace Dividend since the Fall of the Berlin Wall. Events in Europe will cause a global arms race as Alliances break down and nations and blocs “go it alone”. Defence demand will far exc…
Ukraine: Worse than Minsk
The liberal world order, if not dead, is very ill in bed. What replaces it will not be orderly or come cheap. States, previously part a network of alliances, will go it alone to ensure their own defense and strategic interests. There will be a massive increase in defence…
France- Plus Ca Change, Plus Ca Reste La Meme Chose.
Investment Conclusion PM Bayrou presented his government yesterday. It is a weak one by any measure. There will be no fiscal or other reform in France. Populists will take over in June. Yet another weak short lived French government has spillover effects. It increases the ri…
Money Talk with Peter Lewis
A Rollicking but in depth analysis of Tariffs, Trade and Trumpian Tantrums examines: replacing the USD as global reserve currency and punishing those who think of doing so. What will end US supremacy in global markets. Is Europe for turning or for tanking - the French governmen…
Is Germany a Casket Case?
Investment Conclusion. Germany is on the cusp of a major opportunity to reform its economy and galvanise that of the EU as well. The process is within its political grasp. If it lets it slip it could well be the EU that shatters on the floor. This piece is the storyline of how t…
Portfolio Implications of Trump II
The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma…
The Draghi Report- Upon Deaf Ears
The Draghi Report - All the right ideas. But unlikely to be implemented. The reasons: populism and the fear of it. Or in the case of Germany, incompetent governance. No market impact
The Significance of the Inconsequential
There are three political things that don’t matter to markets now but will.