The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China... Read More
The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma... Read More
I see the initial reaction of markets to the Trump victory as misplaced. Not that I thought KH was any good. But I do see high economic costs in Trump policies if implemented. I expect these to cause a bear market in most assets in 2025. Taiwan is my favourite short and the USD m... Read More
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt... Read More
There are three political things that don’t matter to markets now but will. Read More
Quantum Strategy's value is in mapping the future without assuming time past sets time future. Quantum Strategy is not abstract or academic. We provide hands-on strategies for portfolio's, defence agencies and supply chains among other. Read More
The stability at the top of the EU institutions created by the EU Parliamentary election will be undone by the black hole of the French national election, which will empower the extremists, as well as by German political paralysis. As a result, the Seven Major PIllars of EU refor... Read More
David Roche: Israeli escalation against Iran is ‘baked in the cake’ David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, discusses Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel and says “you have all degrees of escalation that are possible, but escalation you will ge... Read More
Bank of Japan has ‘put a floor under the yen,’ but it is not on ‘firm footing,’ David Roche says David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, discusses the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and the Japanese yen. Read More