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France - Chaos
The French Political Crisis- Resignation of PM Sebastian Lecornu. Macron is running out of rope. The latest chapter in the poltical crisis moves France closer to another legislative election at the very least. If that were to happen then a populist government led by the…
Oddbins
Oddbins. Investment Conclusion Japan - The Sanae Takaichi government, at the margin, means more fiscal spending. Therefore the Wealth Preservation Portfolio takes on: • More exposure to Japanese equities. • More shorts on JPG 10yrs. • And a careful watch for any change i…
Odd bins
Oddbins Investment Conclusions. This week marks the publication of “Egonomics” analysing how President Trump’s economic ecosystem may be more stable than thought. But is nevertheless threatened by Supreme Cout ruling and, in the longer term, escalation of the Russian war in …
Egonomics - The Resilience of Trump's Alternative Economy
Egonomics - The Resilience of Trump's Alternative Economy. Investment Conclusion The resilience of the Trump Administration’s economic policies is greater than I thought. There has been success in creating an alternative economic framework driven by the President…
Odd bins
Odd bins Investment Conclusion TICS: US continues to attract capital but the US$ exposure is being covered. Russian foreign exchange assets are about to be confiscated at last. Watch out for retaliation! The UK President Trump’s visit - the …
What the Fed Said
What the Fed Said Investment Conclusion More rate cuts to come; two this year and more next year. The Fed reaction function has shifted to labour markets and away from inflation. The Fed’s dot plots show that FOMC expectations are for a blip in short term …
Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front?
Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front? Introduction The report “Russia – This is not Roulette (Sept 9)” got lots of follow up questions. The trust of the ensuing discussion is about the economic sustainability of war for the Kremlin. This is what I write about below.…
Odd bins
Odd bins Investment Conclusion Asian equities added as European equities reduced. A warning on Fed Independence. Shipping data show weakness in the US economy.
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright & Richard Harris
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright & Richard Harris: Tariffs update - key issues; Trump’s attempt to blackmail EU to hide his own failings and what’s critical about BoJ & Fed meetings this week.