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The Phoney Peace?
The Phoney Peace? Investment Conclusion The market reaction to reduced US-China tariffs is unwarranted. The S&P 500 has clawed back all of its post Liberation Day losses and is only 5% below its peak. The existing tariffs and uncertainty will do a lot more…
China: No Pushover!
China: No Pushover! Investment Conclusion I would not be in any hurry to participate in the current market rally in equities, bonds or the US$. The US equity market today tells us the world is only 9% worse off than when President Trump took office and as…
On a Train in China
On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause…
The Weaponisation of Economics - (Part 1: The Escalation Ladder Viewed from China)
Investment Conclusion Here’s the thing! You do not have to speculate about the fate Chinese holdings of US Treasuries to work out how the trade war will cause a US recession and a fiscal crisis. Just take a look at trade war “escalation dominance” from China’s perspectiv…
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs (postponed for 90 days) and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff w…
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs postponed for 90 days and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff was…
US Tariffs: The Gentleman is for turning
The Gentleman is for turning Tariffs are still in mega-shock terrain: US average tariffs after April 10 volte face are 26% Vs 3% when President Trump took office. That’s 1% higher than if reciprocal tariffs had been implemented. What has changed is that Trump behavi…
Events update.
Update - the week ahead. I don't expect any surrender by President Trump on April 9th. Barring that the full 25% rate of Tariffs announced on April 2 will be implemented. In comments made yesterday the President emphasised that his priority is to "address" the US current …
Tariffying!
Tariffying! US “remedial” tariffs to be announced on April 2 will raise the US effective tariff rate to above 15% - a level not seen since the Great Depression era. This is above the level needed to cause Tariff-Induced-Stagflation in the US economy. The announcement will co…
US Key Tariff Dates
Tariffs will continue to be a source of instability in markets. The McKinley Factor, (January 26, 2025) & The Anatomy of Exceptionalism , ( February 10, 2025) analysed the key role of tariffs in President Trump’s thinking and how this influenced how they were used. No need …