The Fed and the BOJ More Fed cuts to come....but not the sort that will contiue to inspire confidence in equity markets. In Japan the battle for central bnk independence will be declared when Ueda raises rate by 75BP in the BoJ December meeting. That will ... Read More
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10 Dec 25
Time Past & Time Future
#European Commission#Euro Area#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#Europe-Russia the coming conflict.#Trump Ukraine Rhetoric#Japan-Takaichii#Trump's 28 Point Peace Plan#Trump's Serial Betrayalls of Ukraine#Japan-The Sustainability of Sovereign Debt#The Six Macro Risk Factors for Markets#The Cost of Trump's Spheres of Influence#The Alliance of Dictators and Dictator Wannabes.
Time Past & Time Future. What this piece discusses: Why markets are where they are - across all categories? Six drivers are isolated. Can what got us here take us further? What would have to happen for that be our fate? What do consensus forecast expect for 2025?... Read More
09 Dec 25
Peter Lewis Money Talk: A Lively Debate on China Trade Strategy, THe US Strategy PLan & Why Bond Markets Turn Against Fed Cuts
#China trade war escalatory dominance#China & Global South#Trump’s Crusade Against the US Fed#China - The Boa Constrictor Strategy#Trump's 28 Point Peace Plan#NATO Trump Spells out the END.#Trump's Strategic Plan
Peter Lewis Money Talk: A Lively Debate on China Trade Strategy, THe US Strategy PLan & Why Bond Markets Turn Against Fed Cuts Read More
08 Dec 25
NDTV profit. - The Fed, The BoJ, the Yen & the Carry Trade.
NDTV profit. - The Fed, The BoJ, the Yen & the Carry Trade. Read More
08 Dec 25
Navigator.
#US Dollar#India#US Diplomacy#Reserve Bank of India (RBI)#INR (Indian Rupee)#Emerging Markets (India)#US Security Policy#EU-US Culture War#NATO Trump Spells out the END.
Navigator. The publication of the US National Security Strategy last week might be written off as a Trump rant (on the lines of his UN speech) if it did not name the EU as an enemy to be undermined by US support for extremists. It is hard to see how the US and Europe can... Read More
01 Dec 25
Navigator
#Japanese Equities#Taiwan#Japanese Yen#Shipping#JGB (Japanese Government Bond)#Container Shipping#France Sovereign Debt Crisis#France-Lecornu#Japan-The Sustainability of Sovereign Debt#Japan China Conflict#US - China - Taiwan-The trilogy of Betrayal?
Navigator I am biting the bullet and cutting Japanese equity and yen positions. Keeping the short yen on. The reason is twofold: disastrous budget that will push 10yr Japanese JGB yields above Bund's at 2.7% ; and China putting Japan in the crosshairs to make an ex... Read More
28 Nov 25
The New Cold War – How China Wins It! (The New Cold War - Part III: An investor’s Guide)
#Cold War#US-China Cold War#Safe-Haven Assets#The New Global Cold War#The New Cold War#Japan China Conflict
The New Cold War – How China Wins It! ( The New Cold War - Part III: An investor’s Guide) China may not always have intended to replace the US at the top of the global pecking order: geopolitically, militarily and economically. But it does now. This piece looks ... Read More
24 Nov 25
Navigator (The Replacement of Oddbins)
#Japanese Equities#Japanese Yen#Asset Bubbles#Debt Bubbles#Ukraine War#Credit Bubbles#Capital Bubbles#JGB (Japanese Government Bond)#Japanese Economy#Ukraine. President Zelensky#A framework for thinking through Bubbles#President Trumps 28 Point Peace Plan#Trump's Serial Betrayalls of Ukraine#Japan-The Sustainability of Sovereign Debt
Navigator. The QS team tells me that “Odd bins” is a bad name because investors don’t want to look for research in a bin & my writings are garbage enough without associating them with a bin. So the new name is “Navigator”. Investment themes: Markets could be... Read More
22 Nov 25
Ukraine: US 28 Point Plan is a Yalta moment for Europe.
#Russia#Ukraine#Russian Energy#Russian Debt#Ukraine Invasion#Ukraine War#Putin Strategy#Vladimir Putin#President Putin#Russian Influence#East Ukraine#Zelensky#Trump Russian Business Deal#President Zelensky#Ukraine Ceasefire#Ukraine Truce#Russia’s Illegal War in Ukraine#Ukraine Russian Ceasefire#Ukraine. President Zelensky#Trump & Putin#Russian escalation in Europe#Russia Foreign Exchange Assets#Trump Ukraine Rhetoric#Russian Assets#Trump's 28 Point Peace Plan
President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan. President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan is the often repeated but now irrefutably defined proof that the US in on the same page as Putin about the causes and resolutions of Russia's war in Ukraine. But this time is different... Read More
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