It is the dual targeting of US alliances politically and globalisation economically which makes the Trump 2.0 administration so lethal. Read More

Tariffs – Death By 52 cuts & Counting Tariffs announced in the Rose Garden today raise US average effective tariffs to 25%. That’s quite an exogenous shock given they were 3% when President Trump too office! These tariffs are not transitional. They are core to Pres... Read More

Le Pen Conviction - Apres Moi Le Quoi? QS has been short 10yr French Sovereign debt since July 3, 2024. No change in this conviction but it may be a slower ride. It is early days. But the most likely upshot of the constitutional crisis caused by the Le Pen conviction ... Read More

Tariffying! US “remedial” tariffs to be announced on April 2 will raise the US effective tariff rate to above 15% - a level not seen since the Great Depression era. This is above the level needed to cause Tariff-Induced-Stagflation in the US economy. The announcement will co... Read More

The Call - Dial "M" for Moscow “ The absence of war is not peace and can be the prelude to war” Putin offered Trump just enough to prevent a breakdown in negotiations. The sectorial “Truce” is meaningless. Putin will use upcoming talks to pursue Russia’s maxim... Read More

Wealth Protection Portfolio - What's Going On This is what has been going on in the Wealth Protection Portfolio (“WPP"). C hanges are updated since March 1 in the text and the comes the WPP with recent and ongoing changes in red. Overarching theme : removal of expos... Read More

War Dividend A tectonic plateshift has started. There will be a War Dividend to recoup the Peace Dividend since the Fall of the Berlin Wall. Events in Europe will cause a global arms race as Alliances break down and nations and blocs “go it alone”. Defence demand will far exc... Read More

Financial market make no provision for the cost of economic nationalism, the destruction of alliances and the alignment of Russia and the US in an "obsedo-alliance". This will change. When it does expect recession or worse. The Confidence, Credit and Wealth loops from financi... Read More

This report charts the effects of the breakdown of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance on geo-economics and what to do about in portfolios. The Wealth Preservation Portfolio is at the end. Read More

Iran's rising stockpile of weapons' grade uranium is proof Tehran is looking to nuclear weapons to replace its shattered proxies, Israel will not tolerate this. The timing of war and its scope is still towards end of this year or early 2026. But this is a guess, A lot depend... Read More