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Middle East & Russia: Update
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of …
Barnier is gone - why the market indifference.
France. Poor Barnier is gone. And the markets are treating a rudderless France with equanimity. The Euro is at 1.05 to the USD and French 10 yr Sovereign debt is static yielding 2.05% with an unchanged 84 bp spread to Bunds. And CAC futures are up a tiny bit. That was the …
Korea Martial Law - Coup in a Tea Cup
Korea Martial Law. I don't own any S. Korean assets or the currency. If you do, stay calm. This coup seems so bonkers - even by Korean standards - that it'll be gone and forgotten in a short time. If the process of impeachment of the president takes longer the KRW mi…
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will…
Central Bank Forecast post US Non-Farm Payrolls
US Non-Farm Payrolls : The Non-Farm Payrolls report shows that only 12,000 positions were added in October (much lower than the exp. 100k, average compiled by Dow Jones) US Unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistic…