Whispers from Implausibility. If you believe in an effective peace deal, then forget oil! The real plate-shift will be China and the EU. If peace breaks out Russia can offer China little – economically speaking. The US won’t. And the EU must. Europe an... Read More

President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan. President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan is the often repeated but now irrefutably defined proof that the US in on the same page as Putin about the causes and resolutions of Russia's war in Ukraine. But this time is different... Read More

Ukraine: US 28 Point Plan backing Russian Demands: a Yalta moment for Europe. *Ukraine- US backs Russian demands.* Below is the full 28 point US plan drawn up without consultation with any allies. It is tantamount to a full capitulation of Ukraine and satisfacti... Read More

Odd bins The short term critical market issue is the US Supreme Court - not the end of the Shutdown. We look at potential outcomes. and their market consequences. There are a lot of investment themes here that are matched with idea of how to match them with your money... Read More

In the latest RUSI Commentary, David Roche analyses Russia's capacity for low-cost grey-zone warfare against Europe as well as sustaining its war of attrition in Ukraine. The conclusion is,that the primary constraint is the rising cost of recruiting soldiers and demography, not... Read More

Oddbins. Investment Conclusion Japan - The Sanae Takaichi government, at the margin, means more fiscal spending. Therefore the Wealth Preservation Portfolio takes on: • More exposure to Japanese equities. • More shorts on JPG 10yrs. • And a careful watch for any change i... Read More

Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front? Introduction The report “Russia – This is not Roulette (Sept 9)” got lots of follow up questions. The trust of the ensuing discussion is about the economic sustainability of war for the Kremlin. This is what I write about below.... Read More

Russia – This is not Roulette. Investment Conclusion; This is not Russian Roulette. Every chamber in the gun is loaded. It is pointing right at the heart of Europe. The new “sheriff in town” is walking to other way down the dusty track away from the European village.... Read More

The US-European Meetings: Good as it’ll get but not good enough Investment Conclusion Markets will ignore the outcome of the Washington talks. There are no implications for higher tariffs on Russian oil trade and its beneficiaries. So oil will settle down in the high ... Read More

President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in ... Read More