Whispers from Implausibility. If you believe in an effective peace deal, then forget oil! The real plate-shift will be China and the EU. If peace breaks out Russia can offer China little – economically speaking. The US won’t. And the EU must. Europe an... Read More
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24 Nov 25
Navigator (The Replacement of Oddbins)
#Japanese Equities#Japanese Yen#Asset Bubbles#Debt Bubbles#Ukraine War#Credit Bubbles#Capital Bubbles#JGB (Japanese Government Bond)#Japanese Economy#Ukraine. President Zelensky#A framework for thinking through Bubbles#President Trumps 28 Point Peace Plan#Trump's Serial Betrayalls of Ukraine#Japan-The Sustainability of Sovereign Debt
Navigator. The QS team tells me that “Odd bins” is a bad name because investors don’t want to look for research in a bin & my writings are garbage enough without associating them with a bin. So the new name is “Navigator”. Investment themes: Markets could be... Read More
22 Nov 25
Ukraine: US 28 Point Plan is a Yalta moment for Europe.
#Russia#Ukraine#Russian Energy#Russian Debt#Ukraine Invasion#Ukraine War#Putin Strategy#Vladimir Putin#President Putin#Russian Influence#East Ukraine#Zelensky#Trump Russian Business Deal#President Zelensky#Ukraine Ceasefire#Ukraine Truce#Russia’s Illegal War in Ukraine#Ukraine Russian Ceasefire#Ukraine. President Zelensky#Trump & Putin#Russian escalation in Europe#Russia Foreign Exchange Assets#Trump Ukraine Rhetoric#Russian Assets#Trump's 28 Point Peace Plan
President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan. President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan is the often repeated but now irrefutably defined proof that the US in on the same page as Putin about the causes and resolutions of Russia's war in Ukraine. But this time is different... Read More
26 Oct 25
Oddbins
#China Plenum#France#Shipping#China Renminbi#President of France#Ukraine War#China Communist Party#Ukraine Truce#China & Global South#Container Shipping#Ukraine. President Zelensky#France Sovereign Debt Crisis#France-Lecornu#Japan Takaichi Polich Speech#Xi Trump Summit
Investment Conclusion There are no changes in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio this week. But long/overweight Japanese equities is being put on watch. Investors who cut Yen long positions in Yen may consider re-entering them. The BoJ has no excuse not to lean into Taka... Read More
19 Oct 25
Odd bins
#China Plenum#France#China Stimulus#Trump Policy#US-China Trade War#US-China Trade Relations#Shipping#Ukraine War#China Communist Party#Trump - Putin Call#China Tariffs#Ukraine Russian Ceasefire#China Trade War#Container Shipping#Ukraine. President Zelensky#France Sovereign Debt Crisis#Trump Ukraine Rhetoric#France-Lecornu#Asset Bubbles Burst-Corrrection or Catastrophe?#CCP China Party Plenum
Odd bins. Investment Conclusion When the bubble bursts, will it be a correction or a catastrophe? Preview and thoughts next. Increase exposure to safe haven assets (see Wealth Preservation Portfolio (WPP) at the end). AUD and SGD longs are being added to the WPF. Read More
05 Oct 25
Oddbins
#Cold War#China Plenum#Grayzone Warfare#US-China Cold War#US-China Relations#NATO#US-China Trade War#US-China Trade Relations#China Renminbi#EU Summit#Ukraine War#EU NATO#Russia’s Illegal War in Ukraine#China trade war escalatory dominance#NATO Art 4 & Art 5#US backing for NATO#APEC SUMMIT#Russian Intrusions
Oddbins. Investment Conclusion Japan - The Sanae Takaichi government, at the margin, means more fiscal spending. Therefore the Wealth Preservation Portfolio takes on: • More exposure to Japanese equities. • More shorts on JPG 10yrs. • And a careful watch for any change i... Read More
14 Sep 25
Russia – This is not Roulette
#Greyzone Warfare#Russia#EU Commission#Putin#NATO#War#European Politics#Ukraine War#Putin Strategy#EU NATO#Russia's Economy#Vladimir Putin#President Putin#European Leadership#EU Defence Spending & Strategy#Russia’s Illegal War in Ukraine#Russian escalation in Europe#NATO Art 4 & Art 5#US backing for NATO#Europe-Russia the coming conflict.
Russia – This is not Roulette. Investment Conclusion; This is not Russian Roulette. Every chamber in the gun is loaded. It is pointing right at the heart of Europe. The new “sheriff in town” is walking to other way down the dusty track away from the European village.... Read More
15 Jul 25
President Trump’s Putin Pivot
#Tariffs#Trade Wars#US-China Trade War#Trade War#Ukraine War#Trump Tariffs.#US Tariffs#Remedial Tariffs#EU-US Trade War#Reciprocal Tariffs#Trump Tariffs and Treaty Destruction#China Tariffs#Russia’s Illegal War in Ukraine
President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in ... Read More
22 Apr 25
The Truce Proposal
The Truce Proposal Investment Conclusion The joint US, EU & Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal – outlined below - to be finalised in London this week, will be rejected by Moscow. This inevitably leads to escalation. Scenarios: President Trump withdraws from Europe ... Read More
03 Mar 25
The War of the End of the (NATO) World.
#Ukraine#US Administration#NATO#Trump Administration#Ukraine Invasion#Euro Summit#Ukraine War#Zelensky#Defense Spending#Trans-Atlatntic Relations#President Zelensky#Vance#Thugs
This report charts the effects of the breakdown of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance on geo-economics and what to do about in portfolios. The Wealth Preservation Portfolio is at the end. Read More
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