Tariffs will continue to be a source of instability in markets. The McKinley Factor, (January 26, 2025) & The Anatomy of Exceptionalism , ( February 10, 2025) analysed the key role of tariffs in President Trump’s thinking and how this influenced how they were used. No need ... Read More

We are staying long German equities, particularly defence, on the grounds that the election result will result in economic reform and state investment in key sectors like the military and productivity boosting mechanisms laid out in the Draghi and Letta reports. Read More

A Midnight Update on the German Elections. ( sorry for typos etc. they will be righted in the report version) On balance this was an ok result. Not a dream ticket, But one that will begin to move Germany towards econimic revival. Among European equities Germany is... Read More

Here are 13 things that may happen as the Liberal World Order is replaced by the Unmentionable......... and how to protect yourself from the fallout! Read More

Germany Bundestag Elections. A victory for a Grand Coalition led by the CDU’s Friedrich Merz, made up of the major parties (CDU/CSU + SPD plus possibly FDP or Greens), which controls two thirds of the seats in Bundestag & Bundesrat, would open the door to dramatic reform in... Read More

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025 I thought the most significant statement in the Minutes was this: “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number... Read More

Divorce a l'Americain The Liberal World Order and NATO are dead ducks. That opens the way for the Trump 2 Administration to hit Europe with very high (remedial/reciprocal) tariffs in April. Trump has no need for Europeans to help him with Ukraine. The EM... Read More

Brace Yourself! Reciprocal US Tariffs. - tariffs likely to be announced April. These are not in market prices. The report sent you on Friday 15, 2025 - The Anatomy of Exceptionalism- deals with the categories of Tariffs President Trump is likely to impose see Chap... Read More

US Exceptionalism is the investor conviction that “things can’t go wrong in the US of America” for you or your money. Like Frankenstein, “Exceptionalism” is half man, and half beast, half economic reality and half perception - laced with large dollops of hope. The markets ca... Read More

The liberal world order, if not dead, is very ill in bed. What replaces it will not be orderly or come cheap. States, previously part a network of alliances, will go it alone to ensure their own defense and strategic interests. There will be a massive increase in defence... Read More