A war on Iran's nuclear assets is inevitable within a year. That is the geopolitical event that will produce a market meltdown because any attack on nuclear weapons facilities raises the risk of the terminal value of your assets being zero, Read More

I got the Iranian attack on Israel wrong. All now depends on Israel's targeting of its escalatory response. If Israel uses its intelligence to decapitate the Iranian regime (and the IRGC), as it did with Hezbollah, then the economic spillover effects (e.g. energy)) will be limit... Read More

The Russian budget points the way to the increasing un-sustainability of the war for Moscow beginning 2025. The war does not matter to markets now. But it would if it ended. The peace dividend would be high. Read More

Leadership matters in Japan with the biggest impact being on regional security Read More

Why the Barnier government will make matters worse for France, the economy and Europe. Read More

The US Fed's "Jumbo" 50bp cut in fed fund rates to 4.5% to 5% was not what the well balanced economy needed. It is a step into monetarist populism by the central bank. It unwarrantedly biases Fed policy towards unemployment. . It gives the wrong signal as to where the equilibrium... Read More

IN the short term the Fed and the ECB will cut policy rates by 25 bp - no jumbo cuts, Over the easing cycle the ECB will have to cut policy rates more and for longer than the Fed. The EU is entering a period of secular economic decay. The Draghi report speaks not just to the US... Read More

The Draghi Report - All the right ideas. But unlikely to be implemented. The reasons: populism and the fear of it. Or in the case of Germany, incompetent governance. No market impact Read More

There are three political things that don’t matter to markets now but will. Read More

Israeli airstrike against Hezbollah makes the Middle East Armageddon more unlikely. Read More