Fintech TV NY interview on the impact of Syria on oil prices and the unlikely use of digital currency as a reserve currency except for illegal activity by disreputable states or idiotic leaders Read More

All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright. Read More

A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK. Read More

China_ The Renminbi will fall to 8.50 to the US$ in a year as excess domestic liquidity from failed stimulus heads for the door and devaluation is used to limit damage from tariffs. Read More

Update: ECB Fed BoJ Expect 25bp cut from the ECB today. Not 50 bp. The economy is bad enough for a 50bp cut But the ECB is still on the scenario that falling inflation offsets falling nominal wages so that rising real wages get spent as consumption. I doubt it , unlike the... Read More

RTHK the close discussion of China - impacts of Trump appointments & Tariffs and the never ending question of whether Chinese stimulus is fit for purpose. Read More

The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma... Read More

The Silliness of the Fed's JUMBO cut and the hidden damage. Watch on CNBC. Read More

Is the Fed over-focussed on unemployment rather than inflation? And is its self-exoneration from causing post-covid inflation credible? Read More

US Fed- Chair Powell speech: cuts? Yes but how much & how far" less than you think? Read More