War Dividend A tectonic plateshift has started. There will be a War Dividend to recoup the Peace Dividend since the Fall of the Berlin Wall. Events in Europe will cause a global arms race as Alliances break down and nations and blocs “go it alone”. Defence demand will far exc... Read More
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13 Feb 25
Ukraine: Worse than Minsk
#Russia#Ukraine#EU Commission#Trump Policy#Trump Administration#Donald Trump#EU (European Union)#Ukraine War#Russia's Economy#Global Alliances#Currency (US Dollar)#Russian Influence#Deglobalisation#Deglobalization#Alliance of Autocracies#Alliance of Democracies#Trump Tariffs.
The liberal world order, if not dead, is very ill in bed. What replaces it will not be orderly or come cheap. States, previously part a network of alliances, will go it alone to ensure their own defense and strategic interests. There will be a massive increase in defence... Read More
24 Dec 24
France- Plus Ca Change, Plus Ca Reste La Meme Chose.
#EU#Geopolitics#EU Commission#ECB#France#French Sovereign Debt#Euro#French Government#FOMC#Francois Bayrou
Investment Conclusion PM Bayrou presented his government yesterday. It is a weak one by any measure. There will be no fiscal or other reform in France. Populists will take over in June. Yet another weak short lived French government has spillover effects. It increases the ri... Read More
03 Dec 24
Money Talk with Peter Lewis
#EU#China#EU Commission#France#Macro Uncertainty#China Stimulus#Germany#Draghi & Letta Reports#Barnier#OATS#French Sovereign Debt#Euro
A Rollicking but in depth analysis of Tariffs, Trade and Trumpian Tantrums examines: replacing the USD as global reserve currency and punishing those who think of doing so. What will end US supremacy in global markets. Is Europe for turning or for tanking - the French governmen... Read More
22 Nov 24
Is Germany a Casket Case?
Investment Conclusion. Germany is on the cusp of a major opportunity to reform its economy and galvanise that of the EU as well. The process is within its political grasp. If it lets it slip it could well be the EU that shatters on the floor. This piece is the storyline of how t... Read More
18 Nov 24
Portfolio Implications of Trump II
#World#EU#Technology#Greyzone Warfare#Cold War#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#Tariffs#Industrial Raw Materials#US Election#Trump#Monetary Policy#Geopolitics#Volatility#Recession#Ukraine#US Fed#Draghi#EU Commission#EU Parliament#China Real Estate#China Stimulus#Trump Victory
The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma... Read More
09 Sep 24
The Draghi Report- Upon Deaf Ears
The Draghi Report - All the right ideas. But unlikely to be implemented. The reasons: populism and the fear of it. Or in the case of Germany, incompetent governance. No market impact Read More
03 Sep 24
The Significance of the Inconsequential
#World#Trade#Geo-economics#Quantum Economics#Politics#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Draghi#EU Commission#EU Parliament#Populism#Tueringen#Saxony
There are three political things that don’t matter to markets now but will. Read More
11 Nov 15
Fall Of The Portuguese Moderates
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
04 Jun 12
Merkel Sets Her Euro Price Update
#EU Commission#Germany#Euro#Strategy Archive#Europe#Crisis#Bailout#Liquidity#Economic Integration#ESM#Guarantees#Fiscal Union#ECS
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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