We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More
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08 Jan 25
Astern!
#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare
19 Nov 24
Mini Podcast on Macro
#World#Trade#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Protectionism#Sanctions#Industrial Raw Materials#Politics#China#US Election#Trump#Geopolitics#Volatility#Yen#ECB#Global Outlook#China Real Estate#JGBs#China Stimulus#Xi#Biden
The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China... Read More
18 Nov 24
Portfolio Implications of Trump II
#World#EU#Technology#Greyzone Warfare#Cold War#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#Tariffs#Industrial Raw Materials#US Election#Trump#Monetary Policy#Geopolitics#Volatility#Recession#Ukraine#US Fed#Draghi#EU Commission#EU Parliament#China Real Estate#China Stimulus#Trump Victory
The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma... Read More
13 Aug 24
The BoJ, The Yen and Global Liquidity
Yen Strength - will Japan suck global liquidity dry? Read More
05 Aug 24
Troubles Weekend
Recession is the new cloud in the blue sky over markets. The markets now know the colour of fear. Recession is not for now. But fear is. Here's why! Read More
19 Nov 18
Globalisation And Populism
#US#Trade#Volatility#Strategy Archive#Europe#Equities#Growth#Inflation#Bonds#Globallisation#P populism
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
20 Jun 13
EM Outta Here
#Central Banks#Volatility#Strategy Archive#Debt#Interest Rates#Poland#Mexico#Federal Reserve#Middle-Income Trap#Asset Purchase Programme#Foreign Capital Inflows#High-Income Economies
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
08 Mar 11
Monetary Policy Divorce
#Monetary Policy#Central Banks#Volatility#Yen#Strategy Archive#Economy#Equities#Bank of Japan#US Dollar#European Central Bank#Federal Reserve#Bonds (Government & Corporate)
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
26 Oct 10
QE2 - A Recipe For Volatility
#Monetary Policy#Volatility#Strategy Archive#Economy#Inflation#United States#Financial markets#Federal Reserve
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
28 Jun 10
Hitchhikers Guide To The Post Credit Crisis World
#Finance#Central Banks#Volatility#Markets#Strategy Archive#Economic Growth#Credit Crisis#Government Policies#Deflation#Equity Returns
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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