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01 Nov 24

Central Bank Forecast post US Non-Farm Payrolls

US Non-Farm Payrolls : The Non-Farm Payrolls report shows that only 12,000 positions were added in October (much lower than the exp. 100k, average compiled by Dow Jones) US Unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistic... Read More

29 Oct 24

CNBC Squawk Box: Japanese Election Result- Meaning for Markets

Ishiba PM dead man walking

Japanese elections mean weak coalition government. Markets will see Yen weaken - Boj stops normalising policy. Weak yen and likelihood of fiscal packages (to buy votes) means stringer equities. JGB tields will rise reflecting bigger deficits. Read More

28 Oct 24

RTHK - The Close

RTHK Discussing: likely outcome of China's NPC Standing Committee on Nov 4 to 8; the results of the Japanese election what does instability do for assets; and the inevitable discussion of the US election,. Read More

27 Oct 24

Japan- Turbulence in a Tea Cup

Japanese elections see LDP decimated. There will be a period of uncertainty and volatility for Japanese assets as a messy, weak, coalition is put together at the end of a protracted messier period of haggling. Such volatility is a storm in teacup in the global scale of things. ... Read More

26 Oct 24

Middle East: Limited Israeli Retaliation

Limited Israeli retaliation Against Iran will relieve markets. But it does not change outlook for a wider war to be waged by Israel to achieve regime chnage in Tehran targeting Iran's oil assets and nukes within 12 months. The current attack will not break the mould of market i... Read More

22 Oct 24

When Macro Will Matter

Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More

21 Oct 24

RTHK - The Close

The US Presidential - swing to Trump in polls. Meaning of Trump or Harris victory for markets. China stimulus- will the consumer follow orders and shop? Moldova - the corrosive power of Moscow disinformation and corruption. Middle East- Israeli riposte - the delay means more - ... Read More

21 Oct 24

The Mini Podcast on Macro that Matters

The US Election swinging towards Trump? Market outcomes for Trump and Harris victory. Israel strikes back - how matters. China stimulus why the consumer is unlikely to join the party. Moldova - the poser of Russian disinformation. Read More

18 Oct 24

CNBC with David Roche live at the Beijing Housing Ministry's Presser

Beijing pushing  hard but in wrong direction

Live with CNBC from the Housing Ministry's presser commenting on the latest measure to solve the housing problem. Won't work. Does not address housing demand. Read More

16 Oct 24

China - The Heart of the Blather

China- why the stimulus packages won't work and what it means. China remains uninvestable Read More

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