A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK. Read More
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23 Dec 24
CNBC: Europe: Steve & I on whether the only word we need to learn to pronounce next year is "Trump" to which we added Xi, Putin ...
#US#Protectionism#Tariffs#Sanctions#Oil#China#US Election#Trump#Monetary Policy#Russia#Ukraine#US Fed#Chairman Powell#France#Japan#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Hezbollah#Macro Uncertainty#China Stimulus#Trump Policy#Turkey#French Sovereign Debt#French Government#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
10 Dec 24
Middle East & Russia: Update
#Geopolitics#Russia#Middle East#Lebanon#IDF#Putin#Hezbollah#Trump Policy#Syria#Bashar al-Assad#Hamas
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of ... Read More
28 Nov 24
Russia Rough Update
Investment Conclusion. Since “Incidentally” was published ( Incidentally 11252024) explaining how things were going to get rough for Russia because of new sanctions on Russia’s financial system and the dark fleet, things have indeed started getting rough for Russia. T... Read More
22 Oct 24
When Macro Will Matter
#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Plateshifts#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#China#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More
01 Oct 24
Russia - The Rubbish Budget
The Russian budget points the way to the increasing un-sustainability of the war for Moscow beginning 2025. The war does not matter to markets now. But it would if it ended. The peace dividend would be high. Read More
25 Jun 23
Moscow - Red Sky At Night
#Sanctions#Politics#Russia#Ukraine#Putin#Strategy Archive#NATO#International Relations#Military#Crimean War#Repression#Wagner Group#Lukashenko#Defense Strategies
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
24 Jun 23
Russian Coup
#Politics#China#Russia#Ukraine#Putin#Moscow#Xi#Biden#Coup#Strategy Archive#USA#Military#Wagner Group#Crimea#Shoigu#Gerasimov
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
16 Jan 23
Russian Outcomes And Global Markets
#Politics#China#Russia#Ukraine#Putin#Strategy Archive#Global Markets#War#Military#Ministry of Defence
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
30 Aug 22
Putin's Last Gas P
#EU#Energy#Russia#Putin#Strategy Archive#Europe#War#Stocks#Confidence#Natural Gas#Gas Supplies#Winter#LNG#Capacity
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
09 Aug 22
Russian Gas - Can The EU Beat Putins Blockade
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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