A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK. Read More
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23 Dec 24
CNBC: Europe: Steve & I on whether the only word we need to learn to pronounce next year is "Trump" to which we added Xi, Putin ...
#US#Protectionism#Tariffs#Sanctions#Oil#China#US Election#Trump#Monetary Policy#Russia#Ukraine#US Fed#Chairman Powell#France#Japan#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Hezbollah#Macro Uncertainty#China Stimulus#Trump Policy#Turkey#French Sovereign Debt#French Government#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
20 Dec 24
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US... Read More
19 Dec 24
Peter Lewis Money Talk - The Fed removes the markets' drip feed. .....what does it mean for economies and markets
#Trade#Tariffs#Trump#Recession#Yen#Populism#ECB#Markets#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#FOMC#US Federal Reserve
The Fed acts to reduce the number of interest rate cuts in 2025. Underlying this is that the Fed Funds Rate is already close to the neutral rate and more cuts are not needed given that the economy is motoring and inflation is a bit high. But the knock-on effects on markets arou... Read More
02 May 24
Central Bank Update
#Yen#Germany#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Inflation#USD#European Central Bank#EUR#Renminbi#Treasury Securities
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
08 Jul 21
ECB - Reframing Your Dreams
#Euro#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Dollar#European Central Bank#Banking#Inflation Target#Policy Stance#Asset Purchases#Short-term Market Reaction#Comparative Analysis
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
28 Jan 16
Currency Shifting Sands
#Politics#Markets#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Economy#Bank of Japan#Currencies#Exchange Rates#European Central Bank (ECB)#China Renminbi#India Rupee#Poland Zloty
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
04 Nov 15
What If Monetary Policy Is Dead
#Asia#Monetary Policy#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Economy#Currencies#Financial markets#Labour Markets#Overleveraged Economies
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
28 May 13
US - Labour Market Key To The End Of QE
#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Congress#Quantitative Easing#Labour Market#Unemployment Rate#Janet Yellen
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
14 Dec 07
No Cred For The Fed Update
#Central Banks#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Equities#Commodities#Liquidity#Commercial Paper#Inter-Bank Market#Risk Premia
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
06 Jan 98
Contagion: Korea, deflation and the US Fed
#US#Japan#Korea#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Economy#Deflation#International Monetary Fund (IMF)#Global Financial Crisis
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch. Read More
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