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EU-US Tariff Deal: Ursula Sings from the President’s Hymn sheet
EU-US Tariff Deal: Ursula Sings from the President’s Hymn sheet Investment Conclusion: Equity Markets will like the deal. It removes trade war uncertainty. But more for equities than any other asset class, the uncertainty about the hit to profits and discount factors…
Arming For War
The markets make no allowance for the diruption of economic nationalism, the destruction of global alliances and the the preparation of inevitable war. This report rips the veil of denial with 5 bullet points on one page.
Divorce a l'Americain
Divorce a l'Americain The Liberal World Order and NATO are dead ducks. That opens the way for the Trump 2 Administration to hit Europe with very high (remedial/reciprocal) tariffs in April. Trump has no need for Europeans to help him with Ukraine. The EM…
US Sanctions - Russian Oil Tanks
Russia Sanctions & Oil. New US Sanctions are e nough to keep Brent between US$ 80-90 bbl and to heft shipping rates for legitimate tanker fleets. A Trump embargo on Iranian oil shipments could add to pricing pressure., Russia accounts for about 13% of global crude…
France- Plus Ca Change, Plus Ca Reste La Meme Chose.
Investment Conclusion PM Bayrou presented his government yesterday. It is a weak one by any measure. There will be no fiscal or other reform in France. Populists will take over in June. Yet another weak short lived French government has spillover effects. It increases the ri…
Is Germany a Casket Case?
Investment Conclusion. Germany is on the cusp of a major opportunity to reform its economy and galvanise that of the EU as well. The process is within its political grasp. If it lets it slip it could well be the EU that shatters on the floor. This piece is the storyline of how t…
The Draghi Report- Upon Deaf Ears
The Draghi Report - All the right ideas. But unlikely to be implemented. The reasons: populism and the fear of it. Or in the case of Germany, incompetent governance. No market impact
Autumn Sonata
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Autumn Sonata
Economics & Markets after Autumn makes the blooms fade & some icy winter fingers appear.