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Astern!

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·08 Jan 2025

We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro …

#US Fed#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#Middle East#Israel#Iran#EU#US#Sanctions#Energy#Protectionism#China#Trump#Greyzone Warfare#Escalation#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare#US Federal Reserve#US$ Read More
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US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·20 Dec 2024

US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US…

#US$#JPY#US Federal Reserve#Euro#FOMC#Central Banks#US#Chairman Powell#US Fed Read More
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Central Bank Update

Archive Report ·David Roche ·02 May 2024

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Yen#Germany#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#USD#European Central Bank#Inflation#EUR#Renminbi#Treasury Securities Read More
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ECB - Reframing Your Dreams

Archive Report ·David Roche ·08 Jul 2021

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Banking#European Central Bank#Strategy Archive#Dollar#US Federal Reserve#Euro#Inflation Target#Policy Stance#Asset Purchases#Short-term Market Reaction#Comparative Analysis Read More
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Currency Shifting Sands

Archive Report ·David Roche ·28 Jan 2016

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Markets#Politics#US Federal Reserve#Economy#Strategy Archive#Bank of Japan#Currencies#Exchange Rates#European Central Bank (ECB)#China Renminbi#India Rupee#Poland Zloty Read More
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What If Monetary Policy Is Dead

Archive Report ·David Roche ·04 Nov 2015

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Currencies#Financial markets#Strategy Archive#Economy#US Federal Reserve#Asia#Monetary Policy#Labour Markets#Overleveraged Economies Read More
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US - Labour Market Key To The End Of QE

Archive Report ·David Roche ·28 May 2013

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Janet Yellen#Labour Market#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Unemployment Rate#Congress#Quantitative Easing Read More
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No Cred For The Fed Update

Archive Report ·David Roche ·14 Dec 2007

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Commodities#Liquidity#Equities#Strategy Archive#US Federal Reserve#Central Banks#Commercial Paper#Inter-Bank Market#Risk Premia Read More
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Contagion: Korea, deflation and the US Fed

Archive Report ·David Roche ·06 Jan 1998

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#US#Japan#Korea#US Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Economy#Deflation#International Monetary Fund (IMF)#Global Financial Crisis Read More
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Contagion: Crisis end?

Archive Report ·David Roche ·23 Dec 1997

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Global Financial Crisis#Deflation#Liquidity#Bonds#Strategy Archive#US Federal Reserve#Economy#Monetary Policy Read More
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