I see the initial reaction of markets to the Trump victory as misplaced. Not that I thought KH was any good. But I do see high economic costs in Trump policies if implemented. I expect these to cause a bear market in most assets in 2025. Taiwan is my favourite short and the USD m... Read More
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05 Nov 24
Money Talk US Election, China Stimulus and the US Fed
#US#Trade#Sanctions#Politics#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#US Fed#Chairman Powell#Global Outlook#Macro Uncertainty
Money talk with Peter Lewis, Mark Nicholson and Barry Wood on the US Election, China NPC Standing Committee & the US Fed Read More
22 Oct 24
When Macro Will Matter
#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#Plateshifts#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#China#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More
21 Oct 24
RTHK - The Close
#Asia#Greyzone Warfare#Oil#US Election#Trump#Kamala Harris#Geopolitics#Russia#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Lebanon#China Real Estate#Hezbollah#Gaza
The US Presidential - swing to Trump in polls. Meaning of Trump or Harris victory for markets. China stimulus- will the consumer follow orders and shop? Moldova - the corrosive power of Moscow disinformation and corruption. Middle East- Israeli riposte - the delay means more - ... Read More
21 Oct 24
The Mini Podcast on Macro that Matters
The US Election swinging towards Trump? Market outcomes for Trump and Harris victory. Israel strikes back - how matters. China stimulus why the consumer is unlikely to join the party. Moldova - the poser of Russian disinformation. Read More
15 Oct 24
RTHK The Close
RTHK - The Close: China fiscal stimulus- good money after bad?. The US Presidential Election - political & market outcome. . The Middle East - which war now? Read More
14 Oct 24
The Mini Podcast on Macro
The Mini Podcast on Macro that may matter to markets - US Presidential, China Stimulus, Israel & Iranian assets - the "Big If". Read More
07 Oct 24
Winter of Discontent
#World#US#Trade#Greyzone Warfare#Tariffs#US Election#Trump#Russia#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#Japan#Markets#Moscow#Global Outlook#LDP
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt... Read More
12 Sep 24
Central Banks: Heads Up & Heading Down
IN the short term the Fed and the ECB will cut policy rates by 25 bp - no jumbo cuts, Over the easing cycle the ECB will have to cut policy rates more and for longer than the Fed. The EU is entering a period of secular economic decay. The Draghi report speaks not just to the US... Read More
11 Sep 24
US Presidential Debate - The Undecided.
Harris did better in the debate. But the election is too close to call. Here are the consequences of a Trump or Harris victory Read More
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