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Oil Prices & China's Vanishing Imports
What started as a WhatsApp update to clients on Friday is now a formal QS Macro Research Note. As headlines swirled around oil supplies and China's import trajectory, David Roche flagged a dynamic most market participants are missing: it's not demand destruction driving the pric…
Peter Lewis Money Talk - AI Boom, China Equities, Oil Inventories
Catch David Roche on Peter Lewis' Money Talk podcast for June 3, as he examines whether the fever pitch in AI fundraising reflects genuine productivity gains or is repeating the excesses of prior tech cycles. He also considers at what point oil inventory levels move from a pri…
RTHK The Close
RTHK The Close. What sort of macro scenario are markets telling us is in store? Why has the performance of equities, bonds and the US$ so diverged? Is there a feasible scenario for that to continue?
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matter. Trump's tariffs and China's measured but lethal response. Netanyahu manipulated Trump into cementing him in office as Israel's PM. That makes more war in Gaza more likely. And does it mean that Netanyahu will be able to manipulate Tr…
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
David Roche- Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters: Trump - Tariffs - and You! Indian Exceptionalism! The BoE and its coming 25 bp contribution to UK economic mediocrity... .....And this weeks data that may matter to markets
DeepSeek – Deeply Seeking the Significance.
DeepSeek disrupts Tech creating as many winners (AI users) as losers (the overhyped US Magnificent 7 and Chatbot purveyors). It puts Chinese selected tech companies back on the radar for international investors. But most of all it hefts China’s strategic position in the Greyzone…
Peter Lewis - Money Talk - Monday, January 27, 2025
Peter Lewis Money Talk - a great discussion of US policy, the break down of alliances and investment implications; Federal Reseve independence and the USD; and whether measures to shut China out of tech will result in China passing the US out.
The Mini-Podcast on Macro
David Roche- Quantum Strategy- The Mini Podcast on Macro Matters: US jobs blow out- what it tells us about the Fed going forward. China exports - tell us shipping ahead of Tariffs will create a growth vacuum later. US sanctions on Russian energy - why and how th…
Astern!
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro …