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China PLA Purge & S. Korean Constutuionl Crisis.
The relevance of China purges and Korean Constitutional crisis to investors: China - Purge. This brings to 20 the senior officer purged in the last 18 months. The purpose is bring the PLA more under Xi’s direct control. It helps tranform the PLA into a more honed …
CNBC: Europe: Steve & I on whether the only word we need to learn to pronounce next year is "Trump" to which we added Xi, Putin ...
A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK.
CNBC Street Signs- the Renminbi to fall to 8.50 to the USD!!!! Shock & Awe
China_ The Renminbi will fall to 8.50 to the US$ in a year as excess domestic liquidity from failed stimulus heads for the door and devaluation is used to limit damage from tariffs.
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters: What's happened but matters still: China data; Germany - what the Bundesbank believes; Korea - the constitutional crisis; & France - why a decent PM makes no difference - no reform before the populists take over. And to …
Update: China CEWC & Korea in Limbo & France in a hell of its own making.
Update China: CEWC: most of the statement is reiteration of previous stimulus packages. No new initiatives. No new money - in fact financing of the already announced interventions to stabilise the real estate market was omitted altogether.. Three shifts in langu…
Money Talk with Peter Lewis
A Rollicking but in depth analysis of Tariffs, Trade and Trumpian Tantrums examines: replacing the USD as global reserve currency and punishing those who think of doing so. What will end US supremacy in global markets. Is Europe for turning or for tanking - the French governmen…
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will…
Russia Rough Update
Investment Conclusion. Since “Incidentally” was published ( Incidentally 11252024) explaining how things were going to get rough for Russia because of new sanctions on Russia’s financial system and the dark fleet, things have indeed started getting rough for Russia. T…
Incidentally
“War is not caused by incidents, but its timing and trajectory often are. " There are three macro “incidents” that may matter to markets. 1. The new US comprehensive sanctions on Russian financial intermediaries may cripple the EU’s ability to pay for its USD…
Mini Podcast on Macro
The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China…