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Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u…
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will…
Russia Rough Update
Investment Conclusion. Since “Incidentally” was published ( Incidentally 11252024) explaining how things were going to get rough for Russia because of new sanctions on Russia’s financial system and the dark fleet, things have indeed started getting rough for Russia. T…
Winter of Discontent
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt…
Russia - The Rubbish Budget
The Russian budget points the way to the increasing un-sustainability of the war for Moscow beginning 2025. The war does not matter to markets now. But it would if it ended. The peace dividend would be high.
Ukraine- Kursk Offensive
Kursk offensive has potential to be a turning point in this war if Ukraine achieves strategic objectives. If so market effects would be significant.
The Tale Of The Schizophrenic Dog
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Grain Prices To Stay Weak - For Now
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Macro Trilogy
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.