Quantum Strategy David Roche - The Mini Podcast of Macro That Matters to Markets! China's deflation continues- why it matters? Syria- the two scenarios and how critical they are. ECB - what to expect. US Inflation - service price figures critical Read More
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will... Read More
David Roche: Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast for Macro that matters to Markets: Moving on from Trump cabinet appointments to policy the Trump Administration will pursue. I focus on two areas Tariffs and Ukraine - i look at likely policy choices and implications. Th... Read More
The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China... Read More
The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma... Read More
I see the initial reaction of markets to the Trump victory as misplaced. Not that I thought KH was any good. But I do see high economic costs in Trump policies if implemented. I expect these to cause a bear market in most assets in 2025. Taiwan is my favourite short and the USD m... Read More
Money talk with Peter Lewis, Mark Nicholson and Barry Wood on the US Election, China NPC Standing Committee & the US Fed Read More
Limited Israeli retaliation Against Iran will relieve markets. But it does not change outlook for a wider war to be waged by Israel to achieve regime chnage in Tehran targeting Iran's oil assets and nukes within 12 months. The current attack will not break the mould of market i... Read More
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore. Read More
The US Presidential - swing to Trump in polls. Meaning of Trump or Harris victory for markets. China stimulus- will the consumer follow orders and shop? Moldova - the corrosive power of Moscow disinformation and corruption. Middle East- Israeli riposte - the delay means more - ... Read More