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Middle East: Limited Israeli Retaliation
Limited Israeli retaliation Against Iran will relieve markets. But it does not change outlook for a wider war to be waged by Israel to achieve regime chnage in Tehran targeting Iran's oil assets and nukes within 12 months. The current attack will not break the mould of market i…
When Macro Will Matter
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore.
Winter of Discontent
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt…
Middle East: The Inevitable War That'll Matter to Markets
A war on Iran's nuclear assets is inevitable within a year. That is the geopolitical event that will produce a market meltdown because any attack on nuclear weapons facilities raises the risk of the terminal value of your assets being zero,
Middle East- The Mullah’s Mad Gamble
I got the Iranian attack on Israel wrong. All now depends on Israel's targeting of its escalatory response. If Israel uses its intelligence to decapitate the Iranian regime (and the IRGC), as it did with Hezbollah, then the economic spillover effects (e.g. energy)) will be limit…
The Middle East- is this the start of the wider war?
Israeli airstrike against Hezbollah makes the Middle East Armageddon more unlikely.
Middle East - Small Attack, Big Message
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Israel & Iran - The Proxy Veil Is Rent
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Houthi Attacks - The Consequences
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
The Heart And Mind Of Darkness
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.