Peter Lewis Money Talk: What is the state of the US economy compared to China’s? Peter Lewis, Gary Ng and Little old me debate, discover and contrast! Read More

So we know that when President Trump does not like reality he dismisses it and those who make him aware of it. Given the President's doubtful grip on reality we ask the question: How well is the the US economy actually doing? We get behind the volatility of people and data a... Read More

Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in... Read More

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025 I thought the most significant statement in the Minutes was this: “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number... Read More

Discussion with Mark Nicholson, Barry Wood and Peter Lewis about: 1. are Tariffs the only answer to China surpluses and everyone else's deficits. 2.What are China's booming exports telling us about future export demand. 3. Is shins really refocusing stimulus on creating consum... Read More

FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no... Read More

We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More

Quantum Strategy - David Roche - The Micro Podcast on Macro! Sign on for Free Research Trial: https://www.QuantumStrategy.org Coming up his week: - The pulling forward of demand in China that will create gaps in demand later: Exports, Consumer Durables, Autos and... Read More

Quantum Strategy - David Roche: The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters. The 5 things that could go wrong or right next year. The data for this week Read More

All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright. Read More