President Trump inauguration speech. US$ may weaken for a while due to lack of immediate imposition of tariffs (in contrast with other policies like immigration) and statement that his administration would “ begin the overhaul” of trade with foreign countries. I don’t ex... Read More

What does the Gaza ceasefire accord mean? The answer is a lot. It defines the Trump II administration’s foreign policy – peace through strength with decisive personalised interventions. It makes it clear that there’ll be no immediate Israeli attack on Iran sanctioned by the US. ... Read More

Russia Sanctions & Oil. New US Sanctions are e nough to keep Brent between US$ 80-90 bbl and to heft shipping rates for legitimate tanker fleets. A Trump embargo on Iranian oil shipments could add to pricing pressure., Russia accounts for about 13% of global crude... Read More

FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no... Read More

We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro ... Read More

S. Korea Political Crisis - Update. Ultimately the South Korean political crisis will be resolved by constitutional reform and an election leading to a left-wing government. There’ll no further threat of a coup or imposition of martial law. The arrest warrant for impeached Presi... Read More

The sabotage of the Baltic EstLInk2 undersea electricity cable linking Finland to Estonia is not “story over”. The Baltic States are supposed to celebrate the end of their membership of BRELL (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) soviet era electricity supply grid in ... Read More

Syria will not be a unitary state. Syria's fragmentation is driven by internal ethnic splits and by external players such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Syria is descending into internal conflict. But any power configuration is going to be anti-Iranian. Iran will be deprived of its ... Read More

Finland-Estonia – suspected undersea electricity sabotage. The undersea electricity cable (EstLink 2) linking both countries failed at 2400hrs on 12/25/2024. EstLink 2 is 170km long with 145km being undersea. It is alleged that the cable was cut under the ... Read More

The relevance of China purges and Korean Constitutional crisis to investors: China - Purge. This brings to 20 the senior officer purged in the last 18 months. The purpose is bring the PLA more under Xi’s direct control. It helps tranform the PLA into a more honed ... Read More